Philadelphia Thanksgiving 2025 Forecast: Mild, Snow-Free Holiday as Winter Turns Colder in December

Thanksgiving in Philadelphia this year won’t be a white one — at least not on the ground. On Thanksgiving 2025 Philadelphia, temperatures are expected to hover near 50°F with light rain possible, but snow? Almost certainly not. According to the FOX 29 Weather Authority, led by Chief Meteorologist Bob Reed, the city hasn’t seen measurable snow on Thanksgiving since 2010 — and even then, it was a dusting. Historical data from the National Weather Service shows November snow occurs in the region only once every five years. This year, the odds are even lower.

Why Thanksgiving Will Stay Dry

The answer lies in a weak, lingering La Niña. Dr. Matthew Rosencrans, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, explained that the pattern is steering storm systems farther north than usual. "It’s not that cold air isn’t coming — it’s that the tracks are shifting," he said. "The jet stream is riding higher, keeping the coldest air and moisture away from the mid-Atlantic." That’s why Philadelphia is forecast to have above-average temperatures through late November, per the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, which issued its official outlook on November 1, 2025.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac, known for its long-range predictions, echoed this in its August 15, 2025 release: "Mild overall, with pockets of wild." For Philadelphia, that means below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures through December. "People are going to be gardening through late November," said Dr. Michael Steinberg, a meteorological consultant for Delaware Online. "The real winter won’t show up until the calendar flips."

Winter’s Real Arrival: December Through March

Don’t mistake mild for warm. The flip comes fast. The Pennsylvania Weather Action team, led by Director Matthew Stoss, predicts a "flip head first into winter" starting in early December. Their models, which factor in a weakened polar vortex, negative North Atlantic Oscillation, and Eastern Pacific Oscillation, suggest a sharp drop in temperatures — and the first real snowstorms — could arrive as early as December 5.

AccuWeather’s long-range forecast agrees: the first measurable snow will likely hit the Catskills by late November, but Philadelphia won’t see its first accumulation until mid-December. And when it does? It’ll stick. The FOX 29 Weather Authority projects 16 inches of total snow for the season — double last year’s eight inches, but still below the 22-inch historical average. They anticipate just 17 days with snow on the ground this winter, broken into four light dustings and three heavier storms.

"We’re not talking about a snowless winter," said Cecily Tynan, WPVI Action News meteorologist. "We’re talking about a delayed one. The snow’s coming — it’s just waiting for its cue."

White Christmas? Don’t Count on It

The odds of a white Christmas in Philadelphia? Just 15%. That’s according to FOX 29 Weather Authority’s own historical analysis. Since 1940, only 11 Christmases have seen at least an inch of snow on the ground on December 25. The last was 2010. This year, the forecast points to a high-pressure ridge settling over the Northeast around the holidays — keeping things dry and chilly, but not snowy.

"I’ve seen families cancel plans because they thought it’d be white," said Dave Roberts, another WPVI meteorologist. "This year, they’ll just need a jacket. And maybe a shovel by New Year’s."

What’s Behind the Forecast?

The science is clear. A weak La Niña — characterized by cooler-than-average water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific — has been building since summer. Historical data shows that 80% of winters with similar La Niña patterns brought below-average snowfall to the mid-Atlantic. But here’s the twist: La Niña weakens by February. That’s when FOX 29 expects a resurgence in storm activity. "The second half of winter could surprise us," said Bob Reed. "February and March are still wide open."

Meanwhile, the Old Farmer’s Almanac singles out mid-December through January as the coldest stretch — and the most likely window for significant snow. Their prediction aligns with the Pennsylvania Weather Action analog forecast, which points to seven similar winters in the past with average snowfall of 32.8 inches — higher than other models. That discrepancy? It’s the difference between climate patterns and local variability. The Almanac leans on long-term cycles; meteorologists lean on real-time data. Both agree: Thanksgiving will be dry. Winter will come later.

What This Means for Residents

For families gathering for turkey and pie, the forecast is good news. No icy roads. No flight cancellations. Just crisp air and clear skies — perfect for post-dinner walks in Fairmount Park or a stroll along the Schuylkill River.

But for city crews, the delayed snow means a compressed timeline. "We’ve got a month of prep time instead of two," said a Philadelphia Streets Department spokesperson. "We’re already pre-staging salt trucks and checking plow blades. The real test starts December 10."

And for businesses? Retailers are adjusting. "Last year, snowblower sales peaked in November," said the owner of a Northeast Philly hardware store. "This year, we’re seeing a spike in December. People are learning to wait."